The Forces That Are Shaping the Future of Higher Education

Inside Higher Ed

Steven Mintz

December 23, 2022

The past’s meaning only becomes clear in hindsight. Who would have guessed during the 1970s, a decade when it seemed like nothing happened, that a series of developments were underway that would transform the future: the politicization of evangelical religion, accelerating deindustrialization, the deregulation and financialization of the American economy, a profound shift in the nation’s demographics.

Even as we fixate on headline news, the true drivers of transformation occur out of sight. It’s these long-term developments, processes and trends, which take place under the surface, that even the most powerful politicians or institutions must respond to.

This is the case in politics, but it’s also true in higher education. Shifts in demography, the economy and cultural values have far greater influence than the stories that dot the higher ed press.

What were the most important events in higher education in 2022? The list would certainly include test-optional admissions, tuition resets, increasing discount rates, student loan abatement and proposed loan forgiveness, the decade-long enrollment decline, the hype surrounding AI and ChatGPT, and the controversies surrounding college rankings, not to mention the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision on affirmative action.

But are these really the most important stories? What if we were to look back at higher education in 2022 a decade or so in the future? What might we see?

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